Lembaga Survei: Agus-Sylvi Potensi Menang Jika Head To Head Dengan Anies-Sandi. Betulkah?


JAKARTA, jurnalisindonesia.com – Mendekati penetapan cagub cawagub DKI, beberapa lembaga survei terus mengupdate tingkat elektabilitas pasangan bakal cagub cawagub DKI.  Survei terkini Saiful Mujani Research Center (SMRC) mengungkapkan Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono-Sylviana Murni sebagai pasangan bakal cagub DKI yang tak boleh dianggap remeh karena mereka masuk dalam posisi kuda hitam,

Hasil survei yang dipublikasikan, pada hari Kamis (20/10/2016) itu, sangat jauh berbeda dari rilis elektabilitas sejumlah survei sebelumnya yang memposisikan Agus-Sylvi yang diusung PD-PAN-PPP-PKB berada di bawah pasangan Anies Baswedan-Sandiaga Uno yang diusung PKS dan Gerindra.

“Bila pemilihan dilakukan saat ini, 44,4% warga Jakarta menyatakan akan memilih Ahok sebagai Gubernur DKI. Suara dukungan terhadap Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono mencapai 22,3%, atau berselisih tipis dengan dukungan terhadap Anies Baswedan yang baru mencapai 19,9%. Sementara 13,4% lainnya menyatakan tidak tahu atau rahasia,” kata Direktur SMRC, Sirojudin Abbas, dalam rilis Survei SMRC di Hotel Sari Pan Pacific, Jakarta Pusat, Kamis (20/10/2016).

Abbas mengaku jika survei tersebut dilakukan dilakukan pada 1-9 Oktober 2016. Populasi survei adalah warga DKI yang sudah berusia di atas 17 tahun. Dalam survei ini, jumlah sampel acak sebanyak 810 orang yang dipilih secara multistage random sampling. Responden diwawancara secara tatap muka dan margin of error sebesar 3,9% pada tingkat kepercayaan 95%. Quality control dilakukan secara random ke 20% secara random terhadap total sampel. Dalam quality control, tak ditemukan kesalahan berarti.

Dari hasil survei, 70% warga menyatakan kemungkinan besar tidak akan mengubah pilihannya pada Pilkada nanti. Hanya sekitar 29% orang yang mengaku mungkin akan mengubah pilihan. Butuh kerja keras bagi Anies-Sandi dan Agus-Sylvi untuk mengejar ketertinggalan.

Survei ini juga melakukan simulasi cagub DKI jika berlangsung dua putaran. Hasilnya Ahok-Djarot masih terkuat, namun tentu saja kondisi di hari pemilihan dan penghitungan suara juga punya potensi berubah.

“Simulasi dua pasangan: Ahok-Djarot 49,5%, Agus-Sylvi 35,1%, belum jawab 15,4%,” kata Sirojudin Abbas.

“Simulasi dua pasangan: Anies-Sandi 36,9%, Ahok-Djarot 47,9%, tidak jawab 15,1%,” imbuhnya.

SMRC juga menyimulasikan head to head antara Anies-Sandi dan Agus-Sylvi. Hasilnya Agus-Sylvi diprediksi akan menang jika di putaran dua berhadapan dengan Anies-Sandi.

“Simulasi 2 pasangan: Agus-Sylvi 37,2%, Anies-Sandi 34%, tidak jawab 28,8%,” ungkap Sirajudin.[] (NA/ZA)

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